The countdown for the first and second phase of voting under Bihar Assembly elections to be held on 6th and 11th November respectively has now started. According to the information received, till now there has been no indication of any clear wave in favor of any party or alliance, while it is clearly emerging that everyone is sympathetic towards Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
At the same time, the trends of the seven major pre-poll surveys so far, namely Livemint, JVC Poll, C Voter, News It also comes to light that in the event of a triangular contest, the NDA may have to take on the Indi alliance at some places.
This is the reason why more than half a dozen pre-election surveys that have come so far are garnering a lot of headlines on social media and remain the clearest and most recent means of understanding the mood of Bihari voters. At the same time, personal conversations also reveal that till now there is no clear wave in favor of any party in the Bihar Assembly elections 2025, but everyone has sympathy for Nitish Kumar, who is considered the powerful Chief Minister of the state.
Read this also: Battle of changing Bihar: Will the mathematics of 2025 change?
Perhaps because he was very successful in ending Jungle Raj from Bihar and giving a government of good governance and development. At the same time, whoever took him lightly, did not delay even a bit in making him realize his weight and kept BJP-Congress-RJD in the shape of his political shoe. His political style of neither friendship with Kahu nor enmity with Kahu has remained a topic of discussion this time too.
Especially now both his allies and opponents are keeping an eye on what political moves Nitish Kumar, who is considered the political Chanakya of Bihar, will make after November 14. Perhaps due to this style of his, the dilemma among his supporters and opponents has also increased, which is likely to bring him both profit and loss. According to various surveys, the average vote share is as follows – NDA i.e. (BJP + JDU + allies) is expected to get 38 to 40 percent votes, while the Indian alliance i.e. (RJD + Congress + Left) is expected to get 37–39 percent votes. At the same time, newcomer Jan Suraj (Prashant Kishore) party is indicating to get 8-10 percent votes, while others (small parties + independents) are also likely to get 10-12 percent votes.
These things clearly show that there is only a 1-2 percent difference in vote share between the two big alliances. The Lok Poll has shown a slight lead by giving 38.5 percent to the Indi alliance and 37.2 percent to the NDA, while the difference in the vote vibe has been only 1 percent (Indi 36 percent, NDA 35 percent). At the same time, JVC gave an estimate of 41 percent to NDA, which is the highest.
As far as seat projection is concerned, NDA is expected to get 110–130 seats, Indi alliance is expected to get 105–120 seats and Jan Suraj + others are expected to get 8–15 seats. It is noteworthy that any party or alliance needs 122 seats to have majority in the 243-seat Assembly. While C Voter and News While Vote Vibe has placed the NDA between 115–120 seats and the Indi alliance between 110–118 seats. Thus overall, the possibility of a hung assembly cannot be ruled out.
As far as socio-caste breakup is concerned, on one hand women are supporting NDA by 45-48 percent, because the populist schemes of Nitish government like bicycle, liquor ban, 10-10 thousand accounts, etc. have benefited them. At the same time, the youth (18-35 years) are supporting the Indi alliance by 42-45 percent due to the job promises of Leader of Opposition Tejashwi Yadav.
Moreover, Muslims + Yadavs still remain the core voters of the Indi alliance and are giving them 75–80 percent support. At the same time, the upper caste upper caste + EBCs remain the strong base of NDA and are supporting them to the extent of 60–65 percent. At the same time, due to Dalit (Mahadalit versus Paswan), while Mahadalit is in NDA, Paswan is said to be divided between NDA and Indi alliance.
As far as the popularity of the Chief Minister’s face is concerned, NDA’s decision to not make BJP’s Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary the face of its Chief Minister has resulted in Tejashwi Yadav of the Indi alliance overshadowing everyone else. While Tejashwi Yadav was reported to be leading in the survey with 35–38 percent support, Nitish Kumar remained at the second position with 22–28 percent public support. That means, despite 20 years of anti-incumbency, his position remains strong. On the other hand, Jansuraj Party leader Prashant Kishore seems to be emerging as a new option with 8-12 percent public support.
As far as anti-incumbency and issues are concerned, anti-incumbency against Nitish government has increased to 45–50 percent, but BJP’s branding is saving NDA. Among the top issues, unemployment (62%), inflation (28%), crime (22%), flood-migration (18%) are getting public support. In this way, the poll of polls is clearly indicating that there is no clear wave in Bihar. Despite this, NDA is expected to get full benefit of experience and Modi-Nitish duo, while Tejashwi’s youth appeal to the Indi alliance and the social base of the Grand Alliance are keeping it in strong electoral competition.
However, it is also a bitter truth that if Jan Suraj Party and other parties together cut 10 percent of the votes, then the game of NDA and Indi alliance may get spoiled. But who will get worse, the final decision will be taken by the voters who will cast their vote on 6th and 11th November, which will make it clear whether Bihar wants change or stability?
So vote and strengthen democracy! This is the gist of the whole picture of the Pole of the Poles, keep in mind.
– Kamlesh Pandey
Senior journalist and political analyst