US President Donald Trump has created a stir in the global trade corridors by announcing a 50% tariff on Indian products. If seen, this step seems to be a big setback for India, but if we analyze the situation deeply, then this storm will come out by touching India’s economy only like a superficial waves. We are not only making this claim, but are saying such experts and global economic agencies.
Apart from this, one thing in this entire episode is that whether it is the European Union, western countries or Asian or other South Asian countries, most have entered into agreements with ahead of American pressure. Even China is undergoing business talks with America and Trump has postponed Tariff against him but is the only India that is not ready to bend in front of American pressure and stands up. This situation is an important example of India’s economic and diplomatic perseverance. In the global context, India not bowing to this pressure is a sign of its strategic autonomy and confidence and the message to the world is that India can stand on its own.
Also read this: These conditions of Putin should not be angry and rage the trump! Instead of being the end of Russia-rukraine war, the war does not intensify
As far as the response of the experts is concerned, let us tell you that the Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V. Anant Nagswaran assesses that the impact of the US fee will not last more than one or two quarters. He says that there will be short-term pressure in some areas such as gem-ornaments, shrimp and textiles, but the structure and variety of India’s economy will not allow it to bend for a long time. Their message is clear that rather than nervous with short -term trade stress, we have to focus on long -term challenges such as AI, important mineral supply and employment generation.
At the same time, former diplomatic development Swaroop says that India and America are strategic, not transactions based on. He says that this is a passing storm, not a crack. He said that India should be adamant on its strategic autonomy.
In addition, Yifarn Fua, director of S&P Global Ratings, has made a concrete argument that India is not a “trade-oriented” economy. If seen, the share of our exports to America is only 2% compared to GDP. That is, even though this fee remains in force, it will be negligible on India’s overall growth rate. S&P estimates that India will maintain a growth of 6.5% in the next financial year, just like last year. Yiforn Fua, director of S&P Global Ratings, will not affect India’s growth with the US fee and the scenario of its ‘Sovereign rating’ will remain positive. Let us remind you that the rating agency S&P had increased India’s Sovereign rating ‘BBB-‘ to positive in May last year, citing strong economic growth.
On the other hand, the Modi government itself assesses that we are making every effort to deal with the situation. The government has also informed in Parliament that there is no additional charge on pharmaceuticals and electronics, which are high and high-effects of our exports. If seen, the tariff is mainly on some categories, which make about 55% of the total exports, but there is no immediate additional weight on more than half of the goods. In addition, there are frequent talks on the Indo-US bilateral trade agreement and the next round will be discussed on 24 August. This indicates that the doors are not closed but the conversation on the table continues.
Meanwhile, India’s Foreign and Commerce Secretaries have clarified before the meeting of a parliamentary committee that there will be no compromise in sensitive areas like agriculture and dairy, no matter how much the US pressures. India has also started looking for new markets in view of the American stance. If you add all these facts, the picture is clear that America holds a very small business share in our total GDP. Also, there are many sectors from IT services to pharma, auto parts and Agritech which are unaffected by tariffs. In addition, India is simultaneously running both talks with the US and trade expansion from other countries. At the same time, Modi government and policy makers are paying attention to future strategic challenges more than short -term pressure.
However, Trump’s tariff is a temporary disruption for India, not a permanent threat. India’s economic structure, the multiple choice network of exports and diplomatic strategies will keep it safe for a long time. The real challenge is not a business fee, but technology, resource security and employment generation and on these fronts, India is trying to win its real battle.