Just before the Bihar Legislative Assembly elections, the results of the by-elections held in the four major states of the country- Punjab, Gujarat, West Bengal and Kerala have got happiness, while the Congress-BJP has been relaxed as well as a strategic shock, but the CPI has been defeated. The by-elections results in the fact that while you have won a return to one seat in Punjab and Gujarat, unlike expectations, the Congress has strengthened its position in Kerala due to a new seat in Kerala.
Here, in West Bengal, TMC also re -receiving a winning seat remains its political dominance, while the BJP won only one seat in Gujarat, which is its winning seat. But despite the BJP’s power in the Center and the state, she could not shock the second seat here, which has retained its possession. It is clear that instead of Congress in Gujarat, AAP can also become the main rival of BJP.
If seen, no party has been able to snatch seat from each other in other three states except Nilambur seat in Kerala. It means to say that the candidates whose first MLA was won. Significantly, all these states will have assembly elections next year. Aam Aadmi Party candidate Sanjeev Arora from Ludhiana West in Punjab, bypassing all the equations, won by 10,637 votes. At the same time, in Kerala, the Congress snatched the Nilambur seat from the Left, which is a matter of increasing domination.
At the same time, Alifa Ahmed of Trinamool Congress has captured from Kaliganj seat in West Bengal. At the same time, BJP’s link came to BJP’s account. From where the party’s candidate Rajendra Kumar Chavda alias Rajubhai won. However, despite Subaai being in power, the BJP could not handle the second seat of the state, Visavadar. Because AAP’s Gopal Italia captured here. Thus, where you scored two in this by-election, BJP, Congress and TMC scored one by one. It is a matter of peace for you, whose political graph is falling rapidly after the Delhi assembly elections.
At the same time, the CPM has suffered a setback due to the increase in the expectation of Congress in Kerala. It is fine that the Congress finished second in one seat each in Punjab and Gujarat, while the BJP finished second in West Bengal and Visavadar in Gujarat. At the same time, the CPM, which lost the Nilambur seat in Kerala, was also in second place i.e. runner up. Therefore, where the results of this by -election shocked the Congress in Gujarat, there has been some hope in Kerala and Punjab. Let us know that in Kerala’s Nilambur assembly constituency, Congress candidate Aryadan Shaukat defeated CPM’s M. Swaraj by about 10,000 votes. The region is part of the same Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency from where Priyanka Gandhi is an MP. So it is also a matter of comfort for them. It is noteworthy that the Congress presented this by -election as a mandate against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s nine -year rule. Since assembly elections are due in Kerala in 2026, this result is like a danger bell for CM Pinarayi Vijayan.
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You will know that next year there will be assembly elections in West Bengal, Gujarat, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Therefore, in this by -election held earlier, the Aam Aadmi Party has breathed a sigh of relief. Because AAP has succeeded in retaining both the seats won in the last election in Punjab and Gujarat. Whereas before the by -election, the Opposition had raised a big challenge for the Ludhiana West Assembly seat. But in a tough contest, AAP’s Sanjeev Arora defeated Bharatbhushan Ashu of Congress. However, BJP contributed to this victory, whose candidate Jeevan Gupta got 20323 votes.
At the same time, after this victory, the way has been cleared for Arvind Kejriwal to enter the Rajya Sabha, who had been missing since the defeat in the Delhi Assembly elections. However, he has announced that he will not go to Rajya Sabha. Therefore, it is understood that he can send former Deputy Chief Minister of Delhi Manish Sisodia to Rajya Sabha. As Kejriwal has said that the final decision will be taken by PAC.
At the same time, Kaliganj assembly seat in West Bengal has gone to the account of Trinamool Congress, where BJP’s Ashish Ghosh lost to TMC candidate Alifa Ahmed by about 50 thousand votes. On this seat, the Congress fielded Muslim candidate Kabiluddin Sheikh, but got 28251 votes and stood third. It is clear that in this election also Muslim voters voted for TMC. Therefore, before next year’s assembly elections, this result is being considered as the trailer of voting pattern. Experts say that if this pattern is repeated, the Muslim vote will remain in TMC’s account and its main contest in the election will be with BJP. Thus, this result is a danger bell for the Congress, which is weakening in Bengal.
At the same time, BJP won one seat in Gujarat, while the other was second in another place i.e. runner up. Here the victory of AAP MLA Gopal Italia can increase BJP’s tension, as he is in charge of the party in the state. This win can also raise the cadre of the Aam Aadmi Party cadre. It is clear that the Congress has suffered a loss in Gujarat, where Rahul Gandhi is busy in grooming the party afresh. At the same time, in this election, the Congress candidates came only in the Kadhi assembly seat, but lost by a huge margin of 39452 votes. It is believed that the Congress, which is struggling with factionalism and lack of leadership, can also give relief to the BJP in the 2026 assembly elections. It is noteworthy that Gopal Italia won by the resignation of AAP MLA Bhupat Bhayani, the seat of Visavadar in Gujarat. With this victory, AAP proved that it is a better opposition than the Congress in Gujarat.
# BJP’s bet in Gujarat in political breath
Aam Aadmi Party candidate Gopal Italia defeated BJP candidate Kirit Patel by a huge margin in Visavadar seat of Gujarat. Since AAP won this seat in the 2022 elections. In such a situation, where there was a challenge to save this seat in front of you, the prestige was also at stake after losing Delhi. It became clear that after the crushing defeat in the Delhi assembly elections, the Aam Aadmi Party has made a good comeback.
The special thing is that AAP candidate Gopal Italia, except for a few rounds, maintained the lead in the entire 21 round of counting. Italia defeated BJP’s candidate Kirit Patel by 17,581 votes. It is clear that AAP’s victory in the BJP stronghold Gujarat is big because there was a tremendous disappointment after the defeat of Delhi in the Aam Aadmi Party. In the by -elections, the ruling party is to be considered heavy, but AAP stopped the BJP from feeding lotus in Visavadar with a strong view. Whereas BJP has been craving for this seat again in this seat. A total of 16 candidates were in the fray in this election. In which Gopal Italia won by getting 75,906 votes, while Kirit Patel finished second with 58325 votes and Nitin Ranparia Congress finished third with 5491 votes.
Political commentator states that the Aam Aadmi Party also played Punjab Wall bets in Gujarat. Since after the defeat in the Delhi elections, AAP announced the candidate before the Election Commission announced on Visavadar seat. Whereas in BJP, the struggle continued till the end of the candidate here. This gave you full opportunity to promote the candidates and the result also came in his favor.
At the same time, to save this seat of Gujarat, the Aam Aadmi Party fielded its big face. The state in -charge of the party Gopal Italia, despite not being a resident of the region, made two to three tours in the entire assembly and made a deep penetration among the people. In such a situation, he connected people to himself. Whereas even after the BJP was in power, the election campaign remained backward in the election campaign till the end. This is the reason why Kirit Patel proved to be mild in front of Gopal Italia.
AAP strategists said that in the 2022 assembly elections, people had trusted AAP, but AAP’s claim was shocked by Bhupat Bhayaini joining BJP. Therefore, Arvind Kejriwal, who arrived in the nomination of Gopal Italia, realized this, so he publicly announced that if the BJP would buy Gopal Italia, I will quit politics.
According to the election analyst, Gopal Italia was the state head when you won the last time in Visavadar. He fought Surat from Qatargam in that election, but this time Gopal Italia focused on Visavadar as a candidate. As a candidate, he did tremendous homework and raised all the issues on which the BJP could be surrounded.
Political people say that Isudan Gadhvi, who came into politics from journalism, was fully in the role of state chief in this election. Isudan Garhvi, who came from Saurashtra, conducted a survey there before landing Gopal Italia in Visavadar and knew the party workers. He then decided according to his wish. Garhvi was successful in communicating that the fight is between AAP and BJP. This is the reason why the bail of Congress candidate was forfeited.
– Kamlesh Pandey
Senior journalist and political analyst