Ahead of the Bihar Assembly elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has taken a clear strategic turn in its candidate selection. While last time both the BJP and JD(U) were trying to woo the Yadav community, this time they have stepped back from that social experiment and focused on strengthening their traditional support base. BJP has fielded only 6 Yadav candidates this time, whereas in 2020 this number was 16. Similarly, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) has also reduced the number of Yadav candidates from 18 to 8. Instead, the BJP has given tickets to the Kushwaha, Nishad and Vaishya communities on many seats, indicating that the party is now relying on non-Yadav backward and traditional upper castes.
Apart from this, JD(U) has also reduced the number of its Muslim candidates from 11 to only 4. This is proof that it is now assuming that Muslim voters have permanently shifted to the RJD camp. Nitish’s party has given 25 tickets to Kurmi-Koeri (Kushwaha) castes and 22 tickets each to upper castes and extremely backward classes.
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Let us tell you that since 2014, BJP has made continuous efforts to make a dent in the traditionally RJD supporting sections like Yadavs and Muslims in Bihar. By fielding several Yadav candidates in the 2015 and 2020 assembly elections, the BJP had indicated that it was ready to break “Lalu’s Yadav vote bank”. But the reality is that the Yadav community did not break its allegiance to the RJD—in fact, it chose to stand more strongly with the INDIA alliance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
This is why both the BJP and JD(U) have now limited their experiments. BJP has clearly accepted that breaking the “Yadav-Muslim equation” is no longer possible in the near future. The party has therefore shifted its focus to building a strong unity within the ‘core vote bank’, i.e. upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs, EBCs and Scheduled Castes.
According to political analysts, this is the same formula that gave the BJP a huge success in Bihar in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The NDA then raised the slogan of ‘Narendra Modi versus Laluism’, cutting across caste lines, among non-Yadav backward classes and Dalits. Now the same strategy is being repeated in the Bihar assembly elections—only in a more organized form.
On the other hand, RJD has also learned its share of lessons. The party has realized that the Yadav-Muslim equation alone, the foundation of which was laid by Lalu Prasad Yadav in the 1990s, is no longer sufficient to return to power. Therefore, this time RJD has tried to give place to extremely backward people, Dalits and women also in its alliance.
Tejashwi Yadav’s attempt is to adapt the old concept of “social justice” into a new version of “neo-socialism”, that is, to create a new support base by raising economic inequality and unemployment beyond caste boundaries. But the NDA’s ‘social concentration model’ is a direct challenge to this effort as the BJP and JD(U) have now made inroads into the sections that were once the soul of Lalu’s ‘backward-based alliance’.
On the other hand, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is in a more insecure position this time. When the party once again joined hands with the BJP in 2022, its Muslim voters have almost completely dispersed. Now Nitish’s trust is on his caste base, Kurmi-Koeri vote bank and upper castes supporting BJP. But the dilemma before Nitish is that the growing organizational strength of BJP is making a dent in his traditional areas also. In such a situation, for JD(U) this election has become more of a “test of survival” than a “strategy for victory”.
If we look at the future scenario, two parallel strategies are facing each other in this election field of Bihar. The first is the strategy of NDA. Under this, a small but strong and disciplined vote bank is being organized. The second is the strategy of RJD-INDIA alliance. Under this, efforts are being made to connect new social groups while maintaining the traditional basis. If NDA’s ‘core vote bank model’ succeeds, it could be the end of the “Yadav-Muslim monopoly” era in Bihar politics. On the other hand, if RJD’s ‘expanded alliance’ works, then the message will be sent that Bihar’s politics has now started moving out of the narrow lines of religion or caste.
In which direction will the mandate of Bihar go? If we investigate this question, it emerges that Bihar elections are not just about the change of power, but about the new balance of social representation. This strategy of the BJP-JD(U) alliance shows that the NDA no longer wants experimentation but stability – even if it means giving up some part of its social spectrum. This strategy may work in the short term as the NDA still has solid support from the upper castes, non-Yadav backward and Dalit classes. But in the long run, this model will survive only if the aspirations of these classes are linked not only to caste balance, but to concrete achievements of development and employment.
However, this time the politics of Bihar will depend more on strategic psychology than caste mathematics. NDA’s slogan is- “Stability and good governance”, while RJD’s slogan is- “Justice and opportunity.” Now it remains to be seen which promise the people of Bihar consider more credible – the promise of stability or the dream of change.
-Neeraj Kumar Dubey
(This article expresses the author’s own views.)