Principleless coalition politics can never benefit any vibrant democracy. Bihar has become an interesting example of this. Here both policy and rules are being mocked. Be it NDA or India Grand Alliance (formerly known as UPA), the amount of confusion seen in ticket distribution at both the places can be judged that if the voters do not show wisdom, then horse trading is certain to happen to form the government from 14th November.
To be honest, the central leadership of BJP and Congress is no less responsible for this shameful political situation, because the immoral game of check-mate going on between them for twelve months keeps their regional allies in high spirits. It would not be wrong to say that JDU led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and former Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav (sons of former Chief Ministers Lalu Yadav and Rabri Devi) are just their tricks.
But Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav, who were once supportive of each other’s political progress, are so alert that despite being staunch opponents of each other, they showed no hesitation in joining hands with each other twice. He never allowed the political tactics of BJP-Congress to succeed in Bihar. The special thing is that even before the distribution of tickets for the Bihar Assembly elections 2025, the secret political game played by them, i.e. JDU, by instigating BJP and RJD, Congress and their alliance partners, it is natural that even political analysts are stunned by it.
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JDU’s statement that BJP should manage LJP, HAM and RLMO is a deep political move! At the same time, on the indirect gesture of Tejashwi Yadav, VVIP chief Mukesh Sahni taunting Congress and offering less seats to Congress than last time, along with CPI(ML) demanding more seats, shows that RJD wants to keep its allies so weak during seat distribution that even after the election results, their bargaining power remains less. JDU is also facing the same problem, but BJP has taken the lead by defeating it from 122 to 101.
There is no doubt that in elections being fought on the basis of alliance, the first and biggest challenge is how to maintain a balance between the political ambitions of the allies and the ground reality within the alliance, that is, to strike the right balance. From this point of view, NDA has gained initial lead in Bihar assembly elections by already solving the problem of distribution of seats among its allies, but the real problem of distribution of seats is still stuck here till the time of writing the news.
According to political commentators, compared to 2020 of NDA or Grand Alliance in Bihar, the equations have changed not only outside but also within the alliances in 2025, the sharp effect of which is also visible on seat sharing. In NDA, JDU and BJP are contesting on equal number of seats, while other parties have to be satisfied with seats much less than their demand. Due to which those people are happy from outside and unhappy from inside. His political poems gossip about this very thing. However, it would be a good thing for the alliance that no ally has openly expressed their unhappiness, because now there are no options.
According to experts, Bihar Assembly elections 2025 have brought not just one but many challenges for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Even though Nitish Kumar is the face of NDA in this election as per his old stubbornness, the role of his elder brother’s party has now become equal. The story has been the same for the last two decades, whether BJP or RJD was with him, whether the seats were less or more – only Nitish Kumar became the Chief Minister. In between, he had made Jitan Ram Manjhi the Chief Minister for some time. Thus, he has been holding the post of Chief Minister since 2005.
However, his path in this election is not looking easy because he is under pressure from BJP, LJP, HAM and RLMO. At the same time, the allegations of corruption against the team of criminals challenging the law and order and their associates have deeply hurt his image as a good governance babu. However, on the basis of Modi’s name Kevalam, his election boat will sail through. But it will be interesting to see that like last time, if this time also he gets less seats than BJP, will his claim on the CM’s chair remain or will a new political game start after the elections.
At the same time, RJD’s problem is of a different type. It is being said that the grand alliance will have to make a lot of efforts to reach the same formula which was solved by the NDA in time and they will have to go through the difficult test of the Congress high command. Because this time Congress is expecting more seats in Bihar than before. Whereas it may be very difficult for RJD to accept it and maintain coordination with other allies. This is evident from their contradictory statements.
To add to the problem, meanwhile, due to framing of charges against former Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav, former Chief Minister Rabri Devi and former Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav in the IRCTC hotel corruption case, the troubles of the three leaders have increased and may increase further. Since Tejashwi Yadav has raised important issues like corruption and employment in his election campaign. But just before the elections, with the progress of the corruption case, their opposition parties have got another big opportunity and the BJP has even started its offensive.
On the other hand, the angle of well-known election strategist Prashant Kishore’s newly established party Jansuraj can also create political havoc in the political ambitions of NDA and Grand Alliance, because Prashant Kishore’s party Jansuraj has also started announcing candidates. Due to this, NDA and the Grand Alliance will suffer huge losses, because in the list released by this party till now, caste equations have been taken full care of.
However, now only four days are left for the last date of nomination for the first phase of elections, and other camps have taken the lead in releasing the list, so it is natural that the pressure on the Grand Alliance would have increased. Now even the public is not liking the dirty talk of NDA and Grand Alliance. It would not be wrong to say that those candidates who will get less time to campaign, their chances of victory depend on God. Now it depends on the intelligentsia and voters of Bihar whether they will come out of the dilemma of the alliance and build a new future or will remain entangled in the political maze of Lalu Prasad and his alternative Nitish Kumar.
The question remains that for how long will Bihar remain entangled in the alliance’s ‘donkey dilemma’? The leaders and voters of Bihar should take strong decisions only after making this clear. They have to understand that when will they choose the future Prime Minister along with the Chief Minister?
– Kamlesh Pandey
Senior journalist and political analyst
(This article expresses the author’s own views.)