Western countries, especially the US and the European Union, have imposed extensive sanctions on Russia due to the Russia-Ukraine War. It has now been indicated by the NATO countries that if India, China and Brazil continue to buy oil from Russia, they can be imposed 100 percent secondary sanctions (secondary restrictions) on them. This warning can have a profound impact on these three countries in geopolitical, economic and strategic terms.
In the context of India, the country has been buying crude oil from Russia at concessional rates for the last two years, which helped them to strengthen foreign exchange reserves and control inflation. If secondary cultures are installed then India’s financial institutions, banking channels and international trade will be damaged. In addition, Indian companies can be excluded from SWIFT system and dollar -based payment.
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In addition, India’s energy security will create a major crisis as cheap oil supply will be interrupted and dependence on imports from Middle East will increase again. This can increase petrol and diesel prices and domestic inflation. In addition, it will not be easy for India to break ties with Russia strategically because both in defense, space and energy fields have deep relations. At the same time, the pressure on India to increase the proximity to America and Europe will increase further, which can weaken its strategic autonomy.
In the context of China, it has become the biggest buyer of energy, gas and other raw materials from Russia. If it is imposed secondary sanctions on it, then its global supply chain will be affected badly. If seen, Europe and America are a big business partner of China. The erosion from these will be fatal to China’s export -based economy. It is expected that China will probably consider the move as an economic war against American domination and will further strengthen its alternative payment mechanisms (eg CIPS). An effect of NATO’s potential steps may also be that Russia and China’s intimacy may increase further.
In the context of Brazil, it buys a large amount of fertilizer and energy products from Russia. If this supply is interrupted, its agriculture -based economy would be damaged. Brazilian exports, especially to the US and Europe, may be interrupted. In addition, the government of Lula Da Silva wants to keep relationships with Russia balanced, but due to Western pressure it may have to change its foreign policy. This will also affect the unity of BRICS as India, China and Brazil will be punished together.
Talking about the possible global impact, the ban on the three countries can bring a new phase of global trade, supply chain and energy market volatility and inflation. Also, this step will strengthen forums like BRICS, SCO to develop a new payment system, currency and business system free from the domination of the West. This can speed up the process of challenging the dollar dominance in the world.
Talking about the potential strategy of India, China and Brazil to deal with the threat of NATO’s secondary culture, India can increase oil imports from Middle East, US and African countries to reduce dependence on Russia. In addition, India can reduce long -term dependence on energy imports by rapidly investing in renewable energy (solar, wind) and green hydrogen. At the same time, India can interact with the US and European countries at diplomatic levels that it is just a purpose of purchasing oil from Russia and not supporting Russia. India will also try to balance relations with America through forums like Quad, I2U2. In addition, India can continue trade from Russia through Rupee Rupee-Rupee, Rupee-Auan or Barter System. Also, India can firmly support BRICS currency or other alternative payment system.
Talking about the possible steps of China, it will expand the Yuan based payment system (CIPS) and strengthen its economic relations with Russia. Also, China will increase the dependence on Russia-China energy pipeline projects. In addition, China can decentralize the international supply chain to reduce direct pressure from European markets. At the same time, China will adopt an internal consumption and priority to the domestic market and adopt a strategy to reduce export dependence. In addition, China will further strengthen the economic partnership with BRICS, SCO and other non-Western countries. It is also expected that China will carry forward digital yuan or bricks as an alternative to US dollar.
Talking about the possible steps of Brazil, let us tell you that it can reduce the purchase of fertilizer and oil from Russia and bend towards alternative suppliers (Canada, Saudi Arabia). It will also prefer business relations with Europe and America to protect your agricultural exports. In addition, the Lula Da Silva government will try to balance the balance between Russia and the West. If seen, the Brazil will try to show that he is doing business with Russia, but is not doing anti -West politics. At the same time, Brazil will try to reduce dependence on Russia by investing in domestic manure production and new fertilizer techniques.
If seen, the threat of secondary cultures is both an opportunity and challenge for India, China and Brazil. These countries can find solutions to this crisis in their own way, but one thing is clear that global economic and political equations are changing rapidly. On the pretext of this crisis, the world system can move away from the domestic dominance and move towards new poles. One more thing … If NATO actually implements 100% secondary sanctions on India, China and Brazil, then its effect will not be limited to only three countries, but it can change the direction of global geo-economics and politics.